Presidential Poll 2020

[JosephM]

13 hours ago, PaulS said:

If we are reading the same study where you get the 17% from (King's College London study?), the study is actually saying that only 17% of the control group retained the same antibody potency some 3-months later.  That is to say that within 3 months of infection, about 83% of the group lost antibody effectiveness - hence no herd immunity.

No i was not referring to the King's study. but  The King study only suggests Covid-19 antibodies can decline over time enough to be ineffective.

The studies i have read see the decay only in those who have recovered from mild illness and they can't say for sure if it doesn't slow or stop at some point still in the effective range.

Yes, .

Three recent studies – from China, Britain and now the United States – have called into question how long people carry antibodies after infection. But the reality may be less dire than recent headlines suggest.

The latest of these papers is from a research group at UCLA. It tracked antibodies in 34 people with the coronavirus and found that the average antibody levels dropped to half of where they started over a period of about 2 1/2 months.

"The big caveat is of course that this is just one snapshot for a relatively short period of time," says Dr. Otto Yang at UCLA, "so we don't know that it will continue that same rate of drop over time."

I guess we will have to put the sensationalism and repeating headlines aside and wait for more scientific evidence to answer the real question of how long antibodies remain effective in keeping one immune to a repeat of the virus.

 

[thormas]

1 hour ago, JosephM said:

I guess we will have to put the sensationalism and repeating headlines aside and wait for more scientific evidence to answer the real question of how long antibodies remain effective in keeping one immune to a repeat of the virus.

From your lips to the trumpeter's ears - perhaps he'll make a change (less of his sensational and erroneous claims and constant repetition) with today's press conference on Covid.

Fingers Crossed.

Edited August 10, 2020 by thormas

[PaulS]

7 hours ago, JosephM said:

No i was not referring to the King's study. but  The King study only suggests Covid-19 antibodies can decline over time enough to be ineffective.

It's a little more than a simple 'suggestion' based on the scientific evidence of the longest running study on the matter in the world:

Antibody (Ab) responses to SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in most infected individuals 10-15 days following the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. However, due to the recent emergence of this virus in the human population it is not yet known how long these Ab responses will be maintained or whether they will provide protection from re-infection. Using sequential serum samples collected up to 94 days post onset of symptoms (POS) from 65 RT-qPCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals, we show seroconversion in >95% of cases and neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses when sampled beyond 8 days POS. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the nAb response is dependent upon the disease severity, but this does not affect the kinetics of the nAb response. Declining nAb titres were observed during the follow up period. Whilst some individuals with high peak ID₅₀ (>10,000) maintained titres >1,000 at >60 days POS, some with lower peak ID₅₀ had titres approaching baseline within the follow up period. A similar decline in nAb titres was also observed in a cohort of seropositive healthcare workers from Guy′s and St Thomas′ Hospitals. We suggest that this transient nAb response is a feature shared by both a SARS-CoV-2 infection that causes low disease severity and the circulating seasonal coronaviruses that are associated with common colds. This study has important implications when considering widespread serological testing, Ab protection against re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and the durability of vaccine protection.

7 hours ago, JosephM said:

The studies i have read see the decay only in those who have recovered from mild illness and they can't say for sure if it doesn't slow or stop at some point still in the effective range.

I do wonder how many more will die until we finally find out for sure that herd immunity is just not happening?

7 hours ago, JosephM said:

Three recent studies – from China, Britain and now the United States – have called into question how long people carry antibodies after infection. But the reality may be less dire than recent headlines suggest.

Fingers crossed.  In the meantime - wear a mask when in groups, practice excellent hygiene and utilise social distancing.  Just practice the proven measures that slow the spread is a good start - I think Trump is finally coming around to that after seeing the disastrous results of pushing states to reopen prematurely.

7 hours ago, JosephM said:

I guess we will have to put the sensationalism and repeating headlines aside and wait for more scientific evidence to answer the real question of how long antibodies remain effective in keeping one immune to a repeat of the virus.

Well, waiting might be okay if you didn't have a President who has played this disease down from day one, who pushed for reopening prematurely, and who refused for so long to set a good example and promote the use of masks in group situations.  It was politics against good sense and now the US is paying the price for his obstinance.

[PaulS]

This is the most succinct summary I have read of Trump's leadership during this pandemic.  Yes, it comes from a CNN reporter, but that doesn't take away from its accuracy:

First Trump said the pandemic would not take hold of the United States, but it did. Then he said it would simply disappear and it didn't. Then the President said it was safe to open state economies before the pathogen was fully under control -- steps which helped cause a viral eruption across southern and western states. He's argued against all the principles of epidemiology that testing doesn't matter -- even though nations that have done better than the US have used that route to get the virus under control. Last week, Trump said that there might be a vaccine before Election Day in another self-serving political comment. Now firms developing the inoculation and experts say that's likely impossible.

Instead of taking the worst public health crisis in 100 years seriously and working with fact-based and scientific approaches, Trump has devoted his energy and that of the White House to arguing that a response that is clearly disastrous is a glowing success. He's spent weeks peddling non-cures and portraying the economy in the midst of a "boom" -- even though millions of Americans remain unemployed.

But nearly six months into America's battle with the pandemic, the country has a staggering one-quarter of all the world's 20 million coronavirus cases. Thousands of Americans are dying every week and there are alarming new signs of further spread of the disease in the Midwest, California, Texas and some northeastern cities, even as there are some limited signs of encouragement, in lower infections in Florida for instance.

[thormas]

That is an accurate and sad summary.

 

Then you have this, showing his supporters what exactly they're supporting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/10/i-still-believe-president-president/?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-f-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[PaulS]

15 hours ago, thormas said:

That is an accurate and sad summary.

Then you have this, showing his supporters what exactly they're supporting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/10/i-still-believe-president-president/?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-f-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Years ago, I couldn't even entertain somebody behaving and saying so many stupid things like this, much less the President of the United States.  I have to say, as an outsider I am flabbergasted so many Americans accept it and worse, defend it.  I am genuinely curious to see how the US will vote in November.

[thormas]

8 hours ago, PaulS said:

Years ago, I couldn't even entertain somebody behaving and saying so many stupid things like this, much less the President of the United States.  I have to say, as an outsider I am flabbergasted so many Americans accept it and worse, defend it.  I am genuinely curious to see how the US will vote in November.

i completely agree - so many accept his behavior and the clowns that defend him are beyond the pale. The Republican congress and some Governors have no identity of their own and live in fear. I'd rather see someone stand up - despite a twitter rant from the trumpster and just do what is right. The Governor of Maryland is one who has done that.

I am curious about November also - and fingers crossed that people come out and that the trumpeter doesn't miss with the votes - another thing tolerated by too many. 

[Elen1107]

16 hours ago, PaulS said:

Years ago, I couldn't even entertain somebody behaving and saying so many stupid things like this, much less the President of the United States.  I have to say, as an outsider I am flabbergasted so many Americans accept it and worse, defend it.  I am genuinely curious to see how the US will vote in November.

Up is down and down is up here in the US. I feel like the only power or sanity that I have is to ignore him, vote against him and his, and try and live in the 'Presidentupality of Heaven' and forget about the nut. It's the best I can do or can figure.

Hope things go and stay ever so much better for you(s) in the land of Oz.

[thormas]

KAMALA......................YES!!

And don't you just love the Republican mixed and contradictory response about her?

Wonder if the orange trumpster will contribute to her campaign again?

 

[JosephM]

On 8/10/2020 at 7:27 PM, PaulS said:

I do wonder how many more will die until we finally find out for sure that herd immunity is just not happening?

I guess i don't understand your point in this statement. We are doing everything we can to get a vaccine as soon as possible.  We are not waiting on herd immunity. As far as herd immunity goes, i  implied that NY had a degree of herd immunity with their high extrapolated  infection record considering their extremely high death rate per population and that would be a possibility for their decreased numbers compared to other states. The US values their freedoms  and while i personally social distance , wear a mask and only frequent places with service  that does likewise, i do not put my personal values on the shoulders of those who refuse such things.

[thormas]

11 hours ago, JosephM said:

I guess i don't understand your point in this statement. We are doing everything we can to get a vaccine as soon as possible.  We are not waiting on herd immunity. As far as herd immunity goes, i  implied that NY had a degree of herd immunity with their high extrapolated  infection record considering their extremely high death rate per population and that would be a possibility for their decreased numbers compared to other states. The US values their freedoms  and while i personally social distance , wear a mask and only frequent places with service  that does likewise, i do not put my personal values on the shoulders of those who refuse such things.

We all value our freedoms but as people pulled together and sacrificed in other times, so too everybody should do the same now (masks, hand washing, distancing, no crowds). It is more than absurd that people are not willing to do this, to sacrifice for a few months to help bring numbers down everywhere. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by thormas

[Burl]

1 hour ago, thormas said:

We all value our freedoms but as people pulled together and sacrificed in other times, so too everybody should do the same now (masks, hand washing, distancing, no crowds). It is more than absurd that people are not willing to do this, to sacrifice for a few months to help bring numbers down everywhere. 

All well and good if one considers the full cost/benefit analysis of these social controls.  

28 million additional homeless is a big cost for a disease that is less dangerous than the flu and only endangers octogenarians in long term care.  This is not AIDS or Ebola.  The vast majority of the infected do not even get sick.

Nobody likes getting sick, but cv is not worth destroying our society.

[thormas]

3 hours ago, Burl said:

All well and good if one considers the full cost/benefit analysis of these social controls.  

28 million additional homeless is a big cost for a disease that is less dangerous than the flu and only endangers octogenarians in long term care.  This is not AIDS or Ebola.  The vast majority of the infected do not even get sick.

Nobody likes getting sick, but cv is not worth destroying our society.

Of course the entire economic crisis is horrible but the lost would be substantially less if we had a president who knew what he was doing, listened to the experts and actually cared. But we don't, he (and some governors) blew it and here we are. There was a better way........but our fate is tied to a failure of a man and president.

I'll go with the experts on the dangers of Covid-19.  Not sure where you are getting your numbers but the yearly flu deaths in the US are far less that the present number of Covid deaths over 6 months in the US - unless I have the wrong information. And we typically have a vaccine for the flu which mitigates its impact.

Last time I checked even octogenarians are people and US citizens ............and some 165K Americans actually did get sick and they died, and many probably didn't have to. But hey that's me: for the trumpster it is more important to have college football and nascar, open schools without leading the way on any effective testing, sign 'executive orders' to make himself look better and not pressure a Republican congress that wants to cut benefits that will only increase the suffering of the people. 

It is not AIDS or Ebola - I had a friend who died of AIDS decades ago and it was a horrible death, today that person would have been able to take 1 pill (I believe) to remain healthy. And he was able to have visitors till the end. My friend's Mother died of COVID and had to die alone in the hospital and they still have not been able to have a funeral for her. Covid is not AIDS but I was never in fear of catching AIDS. And how many US citizens died of Ebola?

And how about the kids? Ninety kids dead and counting but the trumpster uses stats to tell us kids are ok -  fill the schools. Ninety kids is a statistic unless it's your kid or a friend's kid but hey open the schools. I'm glad more and more people across the country are ignoring this clown.

Nobody does like getting sick but suffering in our society (destruction is a bit much) is due in large part to a failed, uncaring trumpeter.

 

 

[Burl]

18 minutes ago, thormas said:

Of course the entire economic crisis is horrible but the lost would be substantially less if we had a president who knew what he was doing, listened to the experts and actually cared. But we don't, he (and some governors) blew it and here we are. There was a better way........but our fate is tied to a failure of a man and president.

I'll go with the experts on the dangers of Covid-19.  Not sure where you are getting your numbers but the yearly flu deaths in the US are far less that the present number of Covid deaths over 6 months in the US - unless I have the wrong information. And we typically have a vaccine for the flu which mitigates its impact.

Last time I checked even octogenarians are people and US citizens ............and some 165K Americans actually did get sick and they died, and many probably didn't have to. But hey that's me: for the trumpster it is more important to have college football and nascar, open schools without leading the way on any effective testing, sign 'executive orders' to make himself look better and not pressure a Republican congress that wants to cut benefits that will only increase the suffering of the people. 

It is not AIDS or Ebola - I had a friend who died of AIDS decades ago and it was a horrible death, today that person would have been able to take 1 pill (I believe) to remain healthy. And he was able to have visitors till the end. My friend's Mother died of COVID and had to die alone in the hospital and they still have not been able to have a funeral for her. Covid is not AIDS but I was never in fear of catching AIDS. And how many US citizens died of Ebola?

And how about the kids? Ninety kids dead and counting but the trumpster uses stats to tell us kids are ok -  fill the schools. Ninety kids is a statistic unless it's your kid or a friend's kid but hey open the schools. I'm glad more and more people across the country are ignoring this clown.

Nobody does like getting sick but suffering in our society (destruction is a bit much) is due in large part to a failed, uncaring trumpeter.

 

 

You are dead wrong.  Emphasis on DEAD.  Trump has been supporting the cure since the beginning and fought by our phony ‘experts, Fauci and Gates, who are heavily invested in Moderna and who managed Obama’s gift to the Wuhan lab that created the virus.

Trump has been absolutely on point every single time.  It is the China virus and it could have been eliminated by the HCQ protocol used as a preventive.

[thormas]

48 minutes ago, Burl said:

You are dead wrong.  Emphasis on DEAD.  Trump has been supporting the cure since the beginning and fought by our phony ‘experts, Fauci and Gates, who are heavily invested in Moderna and who managed Obama’s gift to the Wuhan lab that created the virus.

Trump has been absolutely on point every single time.  It is the China virus and it could have been eliminated by the HCQ protocol used as a preventive.

What does an emphasis on DEAD actually mean? I sort of like it - so ominous. 

Burl, I'm actually surprised that you buy into the trumpster's narcissistic self-marketing.

And, you also partake in conspiracy theories? Fauci is a phony expert?  This is Soros nonsense, correct? And that particular Moderna theory was already debunked. Be careful with those conspiracy theories they'll bit you in the ..........😩  They have already made a fool out of the trumpster and his minions.

And, you also echo the orange one and call it the China Virus? 

Is it the apocalypse? Perhaps it is with the orange obese one in charge.

 

I do remember the trumpeter being on point with his drug of choice, with injecting bleach, with magical lights and with his prediction that the virus will just go away, disappear - hell of a surprise for 165k people and their families and friends.

 

 

[JosephM]

9 hours ago, thormas said:

We all value our freedoms but as people pulled together and sacrificed in other times, so too everybody should do the same now (masks, hand washing, distancing, no crowds). It is more than absurd that people are not willing to do this, to sacrifice for a few months to help bring numbers down everywhere. 

Thomas,

It seems to me you may be living in a hypothetical  'should be ' world with no basis in reality. What is absurd to me is for you to tell people what they should or shouldn't do.

Edited August 13, 2020 by JosephM
corrected

[JosephM]

3 hours ago, thormas said:

Of course the entire economic crisis is horrible but the lost would be substantially less if we had a president who knew what he was doing, listened to the experts and actually cared. But we don't, he (and some governors) blew it and here we are. There was a better way........but our fate is tied to a failure of a man and president.

It seems amazing to me that you are able to get in the presidents mind and shoes and make such statements. You must read a lot of mainstream news which in my view is no longer reporting news on the president but rather interpreting and slanting what he says to give it anti Trump spin for possible political reasons.

[thormas]

55 minutes ago, JosephM said:

It seems to me you are living in a hypothetical  'should be ' world with no basis in reality. What is absurd to me is for you to tell people what they should or shouldn't do.

Joseph, what you accuse me of is exactly what you have just done: Glass house.

I have expressed some surprise at Burl's comment vis-a-vis trumpeter's marketing, asked him questions and asked if he buys into the conspiracy theories put forth and I provided a cautionary tale as they have already hurt the trumpster with many, many people - as you know. 

I also provided some theories put forth by you-know-who that were actual examples of a world with no basis in reality.

 

 

 

 

[thormas]

38 minutes ago, JosephM said:

It seems amazing to me that you are able to get in the presidents mind and shoes and make such statements. You must read a lot of mainstream news which in my view is no longer reporting news on the president but rather interpreting and slanting what he says to give it anti Trump spin for possible political reasons.

No need to be amazed, actually it's not hard.

Sadly, he has forced all of us to 'enter' and behold his mind and his scary innermost thoughts, rants, threats, insults, theories, racism, ignorance, lack pf curiosity, etc. - courtesy of his constant twittering and his agonizing press conferences. Actually, news of any kind is not really needed, all one needs is a daily dose of trumpster tweets to be in the scariest place in the universe - the orange one's mind. We are all where we don't want to be but can't avoid it.

Of course you feel that way about the news - another trumpster conspiracy theory - also brought to us via tweets and news conferences. 

[PaulS]

5 hours ago, JosephM said:

It seems to me you may be living in a hypothetical  'should be ' world with no basis in reality. What is absurd to me is for you to tell people what they should or shouldn't do.

Really, you never think it is appropriate to ask others to comply with certain requirements for the community's benefit?

Do you think we should allow parents to smoke in enclosed vehicles with their children, if they so choose (ignoring what the kids want of course)?  Do you think that anybody should be allowed to drive their car as fast as they personally desire wherever they want, irrespective of the risks of safety to them and all the other innocents on the road?  

My point is, we as a community manage personal rights all the time.  We certainly don't mind holding those to account in the examples above.  Why is telling people to practice or enforcing sensible distancing and other hygiene practices all of a sudden a human rights issue?  Moves such as these, which are for the overall safety of the community, are just logical moves that any community makes all the time.

[PaulS]

On 8/13/2020 at 6:55 AM, JosephM said:

I guess i don't understand your point in this statement. We are doing everything we can to get a vaccine as soon as possible.  We are not waiting on herd immunity. As far as herd immunity goes, i  implied that NY had a degree of herd immunity with their high extrapolated  infection record considering their extremely high death rate per population and that would be a possibility for their decreased numbers compared to other states. The US values their freedoms  and while i personally social distance , wear a mask and only frequent places with service  that does likewise, i do not put my personal values on the shoulders of those who refuse such things.

My point is that herd immunity doesn't exist - that's the science, not my opinion.  Waiting for a vaccine is a fool's approach - who knows when it will arrive.  Maybe one will, maybe one won't. 

The sensible hygiene practices are what sees the spread hindered and deaths reduced - particularly social distancing and not attending group events (Trump rallies, football games, etc.  Crowds are bad when there is a deadly spreadable virus).

See my previous comment regarding your concern for personal values.

[JosephM]

2 minutes ago, PaulS said:

My point is that herd immunity doesn't exist - that's the science, not my opinion. 

Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely. As a result, the entire community is protected, even those who are not themselves immune. Herd immunity is usually achieved through vaccination, but it can also occur through natural infection. (now that is science)

Your point and science concerning covid-19 is flawed at this time.since  it is not yet proven and only assumed or suggested by some studies..

[PaulS]

 

12 hours ago, Burl said:

28 million additional homeless is a big cost for a disease that is less dangerous than the flu and only endangers octogenarians in long term care.  This is not AIDS or Ebola.  The vast majority of the infected do not even get sick.

Not sure where you get your data from Burl but it is clearly an erroneous source if you think that covid only endangers octogenarians in long term care.  Yes, they are the highest at-risk group by far, but people in all age brackets, from babies to aged care (and without underlying health issues) have died from the virus.

12 hours ago, Burl said:

Nobody likes getting sick, but cv is not worth destroying our society.

Your society is not getting destroyed.  Suck it up for a few months and you will largely be okay.

[PaulS]

3 minutes ago, JosephM said:

Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely. As a result, the entire community is protected, even those who are not themselves immune. Herd immunity is usually achieved through vaccination, but it can also occur through natural infection. (now that is science)

I thought it was clear we were discussing her immunity for the covid virus.  That herd immunity as a scientific principle exists, is a given.  It just can't be proved for covid says the science.

Quote

Your point and science concerning covid-19 is flawed at this time.since  it is not yet proven and only assumed or suggested by some studies..

It's not my science Joe - there simply is NO scientific evidence that herd immunity works as a suitable strategy to tackle covid 19.  

[JosephM]

16 minutes ago, PaulS said:

Really, you never think it is appropriate to ask others to comply with certain requirements for the community's benefit?

Do you think we should allow parents to smoke in enclosed vehicles with their children, if they so choose (ignoring what the kids want of course)?  Do you think that anybody should be allowed to drive their car as fast as they personally desire wherever they want, irrespective of the risks of safety to them and all the other innocents on the road?  

My point is, we as a community manage personal rights all the time.  We certainly don't mind holding those to account in the examples above.  Why is telling people to practice or enforcing sensible distancing and other hygiene practices all of a sudden a human rights issue?  Moves such as these, which are for the overall safety of the community, are just logical moves that any community makes all the time.

Asking is one thing. Requiring is another. One can protect oneself from one who refuses to comply. A restaurant can refuse to comply but if i disagree i will not go there. 

Driving is a privilege here in the US, not a right. Certain rules are necessary for the safety of others. 

Because it is a human rights issue and it need not be mandatory for the safety of all. If people want to take the risk be in their presence that is fine with me. Survival will rid itself of the foolish if that is what they are. so long as i am not forced into personal harm.